Topic : Certainty

Money magazine reported in its January 1997 issue that a group of people were asked which is longer, the Panama Canal or the Suez Canal, and then asked how certain they were that their answer was correct. Among those who were 60% certain, 50% of them got the answer right—meaning that this group was 10% too sure. But among those who were 90% certain, only 65% got the answer right, meaning that this group was 25% too sure.

Apparently, according to this reported study, the more convinced we are of our knowledge, the bigger the gap between what we actually know and what we think we know. Such overconfidence leads to an illusion of control. As we overestimate the value of our own skills and knowledge, it leads us to make mistakes.

One of the hardest challenges for people is to accept just how little they really know. An example of overestimated knowledge took place a few years ago when a Spanish national lottery winner was asked how he selected the ticket number. He answered that he was positive his lucky number ended in 48—because, he said, “I dreamed of the number seven for seven straight nights. And seven times seven is 48.”

The McIntosh Church Growth Network, Vol. 9, Issue 6, June 1997

Another technique to find more answers is to change the wording in your questions. Here’s an example of how such a strategy can work. Several centuries ago, a curious but deadly plague appeared in a small village in Lithuania. What was curious about this disease was its grip on its victim; as soon as a person contracted it, he would go into a very deep almost deathlike coma. Most individuals would die within twenty-four hours, but occasionally a hardy soul would make it back to the full bloom of health. The problem was that since early eighteenth century medical technology was not very advanced, the unafflicted had quite a difficult time telling whether a victim was dead or alive. This didn’t matter too much, though, because most of the people were, in fact, dead.

Then one day it was discovered that someone had been buried alive. This alarmed the townspeople, so they called a town meeting to decide what should be done to prevent such a situation from happening again. After much discussion, most people agreed on the following solution. They decided to put food and water in every casket next to the body. They would even put an air hole up from the casket to the earth’s surface. These procedures would be expensive, but they would be more than worthwhile if they would save some people’s lives.

Another group came up with a second, less expensive, right answer. They proposed implanting a twelve inch long stake in every coffin lid directly over where the victim’s heart would be. Then whatever doubts there were about whether the person was dead or alive would be eliminated as soon as the coffin lid was closed.

What differentiated the two solutions were the questions used to find them. Whereas the first group asked, “What should we do in the event we bury somebody alive?”, the second group wondered, “How can we make sure everyone we bury is dead?”

A Whack on the Side of the Head by Roger von Oech, Ph.D., Warner Books, 1983, pp. 25-26

Two old-timers were having a rather heated discussion in an old folks home. One, however, seemed to be doing most of the talking. This went on for several minutes while the second man waited patiently for an opening to present his side of the argument.

Just when it appeared the first man was about to run down and the second could get in a few words, the one who was talking summed up his argument vehemently, then promptly turned off his hearing aid.

Bits & Pieces, February 4, 1993, p. 18

When I was young I was sure of everything; in a few years, having been mistaken a thousand times, I was not half so sure of most things as I was before; at present, I am hardly sure of anything but what God has revealed to me. - John Wesley

Source unknown

A man with one watch knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure.

Source unknown

Little Johnny’s grandfather was something of a philosopher and never missed an opportunity to give out bits of sage advice to his grandson.

“Yessirree, Johnny,” he said one day, “remember, fools are certain, but wise men hesitate.”

“Are you sure, Grandpa?” asked Johnny.

“Yes, my boy,” said the old man, laying his gnarled hand on the youth’s head, “I’m absolutely certain.”

Bits and Pieces, January, 1990, p. 9