Topic : Decisions, cf choices

You’ve been given a free ticket to a football game. A snowstorm the night before makes the drive to the stadium risky. Would you go? Okay: same game, same snowstorm—except this time you paid $100 for the ticket. Now would you go? According to University of Chicago economist Richard Thaler, people are more likely to take a risk if they paid for the ticket. But, as Thaler points out, “The fact that you spent $100 shouldn’t matter when you decide between the reward of seeing the game and the risk of getting killed.”

Two all-too human tendencies come into play here. the first is the “sunk-cost fallacy”—the idea that having paid for something, you had better not waste it, no matter what the consequences. The second is “loss aversion”—the fact that people place about twice as much significance on a loss as on a gain. In other words, they are twice as unhappy about losing $100 as they are pleased about making $100.

Gary Belsky, Money, July, 1995

A wealthy eccentric died and left a million dollars to his nephew, John. When the will was read at the lawyer’s office, the lawyer said to John, “According to your uncle’s instructions, payment of your inheritance will depend on choices that you must make.” The lawyer held his two fists out in front of him and asked, “Do you choose what is in my right hand or in my left hand?”

John decided to take what was in the attorney’s right hand. The lawyer opened his left hand to reveal a gold coin and a silver coin. “Had you chosen this hand,” he said, “you would have received a substantial share in a gold mine or a silver mine in Chile.” Then he opened his right hand to reveal a nut and a coffee bean. “These represent a million dollars’ worth of nuts or coffee from Brazil,” said the attorney. “Which do you choose?” John decided on the nuts.

A week went by before John arrived in Brazil to take charge of his holdings. In the interim, fire destroyed a huge warehouse where the nuts that John had inherited were stored and coffee prices doubled. Since John hadn’t gotten around to insuring his holdings, he soon was bankrupt.

He barely had enough for his airfare home to New York or Los Angeles, where he could stay with a friend. He chose Los Angeles.

Just before he took off, the New York plane came out on the runway—it was a brand-new super jet. For the connecting flight to Los Angeles, the plane was a 1928 Ford trimotor with a sway back that took half a day to get off the ground. It was filled with crying children and tethered goats. Over the Andes one engine fell off. Our man crawled up to the cockpit and said, “Let me out if you want to save your lives. Give me a parachute.”

The pilot agreed but said, “On this airline, anybody who bails out must wear two chutes.”

John jumped from the plane and as he fell he tried to make up his mind which rip cord to pull. Finally he chose the one on the left. It was rusty, and the wire pulled loose. He pulled the other handle. The chute opened, but its shroud lines snapped. In desperation the poor fellow cried out, “St. Francis save me!”

Suddenly a great hand reached down from Heaven, seized the poor man’s wrist and let him dangle in midair. Then a gentle voice asked, “St. Francis Xavier or St. Francis of Assisi?”

Bits & Pieces, May 25, 1995, pp. 6-8

Questions that Charles Stanley and In Touch Ministry ask when making decisions:

1. Is this biblical'

2. Will it help accomplish our goals'

3. Is it wise stewardship of our resources'

4. Will it glorify Christ'

Charles Stanley, In Touch Ministry.

Actually, a manager needs the ability not only to make good decisions himself, but also to lead others to make good decisions. Charles Moore, after four years of research at the United Parcel Service reached the following conclusions:

1. Good decisions take a lot of time.

2. Good decisions combine the efforts of a number of people.

3. Good decisions give individuals the freedom to dissent.

4. Good decisions are reached without any pressure from the top to reach an artificial consensus.

5. Good decisions are based on the participation of those responsible for implementing them.*

Source unknown

What kind of person is best able to involve others and himself in good decision making? J. Keith Louden lists seven qualities:

1. The ability to look ahead and see what’s coming—foresight.

2. Steadiness, with patience and persistence and courage.

3. A buoyant spirit that in spite of cares generates confidence.

4. Ingeniousness, the ability to solve problems soundly yet creatively.

5. The ability to help others.

6. Righteousness, the willingness to do the right thing and speak the truth.

7. Personal morality of a quality that commands the respect of others**

Charles W.L. Foreman, “Managing a Decision Into Being,” from the Management Course for Presidents, pp.3-4.

J. Keith Louden, “Leadership,” from the Management Course for Presidents, pp 10-11.

British prime minister Herbert Asquith once spent a weekend at the Waddesdon estate of the 19th-century Rothschild family. One day, as Asquith was being waited on at tea time by the butler, the following conversation ensued: “Tea, coffee, or a peach from off the wall, sir?”

“Tea, please,” answered Asquith.

“China, India, or Ceylon, sir?” asked the butler.

“China, please.”

“Lemon, milk, or cream, sir?”

“Milk, please,” replied Asquith.

“Jersey, Hereford, or Shorthorn, sir?” asked the butler.

Today in the Word, May 5, 1993

There is a time, we know not when
A point we know not where
That marks the destiny of men
For glory or despair.

There is a line by us unseen
That crosses every path
The hidden boundary between
God’s patience and His wrath.

Joseph Addison Alexander

Source unknown

Once to every man and nation
Comes the moment to decide
In the strife of truth or falsehood
For the good or evil side.

But to every man there openeth
A high way and a low
And every man decideth
Which way his soul shall go.

James Russell Lowell

Source unknown

During World War II, Winston Churchill was forced to make a painful choice. The British secret service had broken the Nazi code and informed Churchill that the Germans were going to bomb Coventry. He had two alternatives: (1) evacuate the citizens and save hundreds of lives at the expense of indicating to the Germans that the code was broken; or (2) take no action, which would kill hundreds but keep the information flowing and possibly same many more lives. Churchill had to choose and followed the second course.

Between Two Truths - Living with Biblical Tensions, Klyne Snodgrass, 1990, Zondervan Publishing House, p. 179

• The hardest thing to learn in life is which bridge to cross and which to burn. - David Russell
• Some of my friends are for it, some of my friends are against it, and I’m for my friends.
• Take time to deliberate; but when the time for action arrives, stop thinking and go on. - Andrew Jackson
• It may be true that there are two sides to every question, but it is also true that there are two sides to a sheet of flypaper, and it makes a big difference to the fly which side he chooses.

Sources unknown

The letter says this, “It seemed good to the Holy Spirit and to us” (Acts 15:28 NIV). Unity in prayer brings the mind of the Spirit.

When the Spirit’s leadership is followed, calm supplants storm and blessing banishes battle. Dr. G. Campbell Morgan commented, “We must freely admit we very seldom hear this language. We do read that a matter was carried by an overwhelming majority, but that is a very different thing. An overwhelming majority often leaves behind it a minority disaffected and dangerous. We shall come to unanimity when we are prepared to discuss freely [and] frankly our absolute differences, on the basis of a common desire to know the mind of the Lord. If we come...having made our minds up that so it must be, then we hinder the Holy Spirit, and make it impossible for Him to make know His mind and will. But if we come, perfectly sure in our minds, but wanting to know what the Lord’s mind is, then ere the council ends, today as yesterday, the moment will come when we shall be able to say with a fine dignity and a splendid force, ‘It seems good to the Holy Spirit and to us’”

The Acts of the Apostles, p. 365.

The words of Eleanor Roosevelt ring true:

One’s philosophy is not best expressed in words. It is expressed in the choices one makes. In the long run, we shape our lives and we shape ourselves. The process never ends until we die. And the choices we make are ultimately our responsibility.

Little House on the Freeway, Tim Kimmel, p.143

“When I was a boy, my father, a baker, introduced me to the wonders of song,” tenor Luciano Pavarotti relates. “He urged me to work very hard to develop my voice. Arrigo Pola, a professional tenor in my hometown of Modena, Italy, took me as a pupil. I also enrolled in a teachers college. On graduating, I asked my father, ‘Shall I be a teacher or a singer?’ “‘Luciano,’ my father replied, ‘if you try to sit on two chairs, you will fall between them. For life, you must choose one chair.’

“I chose one. It took seven years of study and frustration before I made my first professional appearance. It took another seven to reach the Metropolitan Opera. And now I think whether it’s laying bricks, writing a book—whatever we choose—we should give ourselves to it. Commitment, that’s the key. Choose one chair.”

Guideposts

Former president Ronald Reagan once had an aunt who took him to a cobbler for a pair of new shoes. The cobbler asked young Reagan, “Do you want square toes or round toes?” Unable to decide, Reagan didn’t answer, so the cobbler gave him a few days. Several days later the cobbler saw Reagan on the street and asked him again what kind of toes he wanted on his shoes. Reagan still couldn’t decide, so the shoemaker replied, “Well, come by in a couple of days. Your shoes will be ready.”

When the future president did so, he found one square-toed and one round-toed shoe! “This will teach you to never let people make decisions for you,” the cobbler said to his indecisive customer. “I learned right then and there,” Reagan said later, “if you don’t make your own decisions, someone else will.”

Today in the Word, MBI, August, 1991, p. 16

To every man there openeth
A way, and ways, and a way.
And some men climb the high way,
And some men grope below,

And in between on the misty flats
The rest drift to and fro.
And to every man there openeth
A high way and a low;

And every man decideth
Which way his soul shall go.

John Oxenham

Leadership, VI, p. 1

When in charge, ponder
When in trouble, delegate
When in doubt, mumble

Source unknown

Years ago a professor at Stanford devised a check lest of nine questions that can be applied to any problem. Used as a self-quiz, the questions spur imagination. They are:

1. Is there a new way to do it'

2. Can you borrow or adapt'

3. Can you give it a new twist'

4. Do you merely need more of the same'

5. Less of the same'

6. Is there a substitute'

7. Can the parts be rearranged'

8. What if we do just the opposite'

9. Can ideas be combined'

Bits and Pieces, February, 1990, p. 20

While an open mind is priceless, it is priceless only when its owner has the courage to make a final decision which closes the mind for action after the process of viewing all sides of the question has been completed. Failure to make a decision after due consideration of all the facts will quickly brand a man as unfit for a position of responsibility. Not all of your decisions will be correct. None of us is perfect. But if you get into the habit of making decisions, experience will develop your judgment to a point where it is better to be right fifty percent of the time and get something done, than it is to get nothing done because you fear to reach a decision. H.W. Andrews

Source unknown

In my search for an assistant, I had narrowed the applicants to two women. One had more experience; the other was more personable. I headed for my boss’s office, still undecided. Realizing I needed help, he produced a quarter, saying, “Heads, It’s experience. Tails, it’s personality.” He flipped the quarter into the air and then asked, “Quick! What are you thinking?” “Tails,” I blurted. It was true. I had been wishing it would come up tails. The quarter landed in his palm and without looking at it, he said, “Call Personnel with your executive decision.”

Donna Paciullo, in Reader’s Digest

A husband and wife, prior to marriage, decided that he’d make all the major decisions and she the minor ones. After 20 years of marriage, he was asked how this arrangement had worked. “Great! in all these years I’ve never had to make a major decision.”

Source unknown

A farmer hired a man to work for him. He told him his first task would be to paint the barn and said it should take him about three days to complete. But the hired man was finished in one day. The farmer set him to cutting wood, telling him it would require about 4 days. The hired man finished in a day and a half, to the farmer’s amazement. The next task was to sort out a large pile of potatoes. He was to arrange them into three piles: seed potatoes, food for the hogs, and potatoes that were good enough to sell. The farmer said it was a small job and shouldn’t take long at all. At the end of the day the farmer came back and found the hired man had barely started. “What’s the matter here” the farmer asked. “I can work hard, but I can’t make decisions!”

Source unknown

In April, 1986, Larry Burkett (on his radio program) spoke of a young couple who wanted to buy a home, but felt it to be too expensive for them. They told God, “If you want us to buy it, 1) have the contractor accept only 1/2 of what he’s asking for the down payment, and 2) have the bank approve our loan. Both events happened and they bought the home. They soon began to go into debt. The problem: what to do now, since God “directed” them to do this!

Source unknown

I remember one winter my dad needed firewood, and he found a dead tree and sawed it down. In the spring, to his dismay, new shoots sprouted around the trunk. He said, “I thought sure it was dead. The leaves had all dropped in the wintertime. It was so cold that twigs snapped as if there were no life left in the old tree. But now I see that there was still life at the taproot.” He looked at me and said, “Bob, don’t’ forget this important lesson. Never cut a tree down in the wintertime. Never make a negative decision in the low time. Never make your most important decisions when you are in your worst mood. Wait. Be patient. The storm will pass. The spring will come.”

Robert H. Schuller, Tough Times Never Last, But Tough People Do!, Thomas Nelson

He (Janis) lists some of the symptoms of groupthink in his study of high-level governmental decision makers. Prime among these is the sharing of an illusion of invulnerability which leads to over optimism and causes planners to fail to respond to clear warnings of danger and be willing to take extraordinary risks.

Second, the participants in groupthink ignore warnings and construct rationalizations in order to discount them.

Third, victims of groupthink have an unquestioned belief in the inherent morality of their ingroup actions, inclining the members to ignore the ethical or moral consequences of their decisions.

Fourth, victims of groupthink hold stereotyped views of the leaders of enemy groups. They are seen as so evil that there is no warrant for arbitration or negotiation or as too weak or too stupid to put up an effective defense.

Fifth, victims of groupthink, says Janis, apply direct pressure on any individual who momentarily expresses doubts about any of the group’s shared illusions, or questions the validity of the arguments.

Sixth, unanimity becomes an idol. Victims of groupthink avoid deviating from what appears to be the group consensus; they keep silent about their misgivings and even minimize to themselves the importance of their doubts. Victims of groupthink sometimes appoint themselves as “mindguards” to protect the leader and fellow members from adverse information.

Janis quotes Robert Kennedy as having taken one of the members of the group aside and told him, “You may be right or you may be wrong, but the President has made his mind up. Don’t push it any further. Now is the time for everyone to help him all they can.” Janis also lists some of the symptoms of the resulting inadequacy of problem-solving. Among these are the limitation of discussion to only a few alternative courses of action, the failure to reexamine some of the initially preferred and now discarded courses of action, and the failure to seek information from experts within the same organization who could supply more precise estimates of possible losses and gains from alternate courses of action.

K. Menninger, Whatever Became of Sin?, pp. 96, 97; Irving L. Janis, “Groupthink,” Psychology Today, 5:43 (November, 1971).